“A Nation’s Future Undermined”: What Price Has Sudan Paid for War?
Sudan’s civil war, which began three years ago, has shattered civilian infrastructure and driven millions into severe hardship.
Three years into its civil war, Sudan has been transformed beyond recognition. More than 40,000 people have lost their lives, while nearly 14 million—about a quarter of the population—have been displaced. Civilian infrastructure across the country has suffered widespread destruction.
“We are not merely confronting a crisis; we are witnessing the systematic dismantling of a nation’s future,” said Luca Renda, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Resident Representative in Sudan, in an interview with a news channel.
A joint report by the UNDP and the Institute for Security Studies highlights the scale of Sudan’s economic collapse since the conflict erupted in 2023, triggered by a power struggle between the national army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
Even in the most optimistic scenario—where peace is restored by 2026—Sudan is projected to lose approximately $18.8 billion in GDP by 2043. This underscores the profound and lasting impact the war has already had on the country’s economic direction.
The report warns that the damage extends far beyond immediate financial losses, affecting the very foundations of the economy, including agriculture, industry, services, and state institutions.
Impact on Infrastructure and Basic Services
The destruction of infrastructure and the breakdown of essential systems have imposed a severe economic burden. In 2023 alone, Sudan lost an estimated $6.4 billion in GDP. Renda described this as a “simultaneous collapse across all major sectors of the economy,” largely driven by infrastructure damage.
Farmland, irrigation networks, and transportation systems have been heavily affected, contributing to a 15 percent decline in cultivated land. In urban areas, the destruction of factories and electricity shortages have caused industrial production to plummet by nearly 90 percent, resulting in widespread job losses.
Up to 40 percent of electricity generation capacity has been lost, while vital water systems have been destroyed or taken over, cutting off access to clean water and sanitation. Renda told a news channel that such destruction not only forces displacement but also makes it extremely difficult for people to secure housing and essential services.
The collapse of water systems has also led to disease outbreaks, including cholera, further straining an already fragile healthcare sector. The World Health Organization has confirmed more than 200 attacks on health facilities, with fewer than 14 percent fully operational in conflict zones. Thousands of schools have been damaged or shut down, disrupting education for millions of children.
Labour Market Crisis
Agriculture, once employing around 65 percent of the workforce, has been severely disrupted. The reduction in cultivated land has undermined rural livelihoods, leaving farming communities without income or food security.
According to UNDP data, average incomes have dropped to levels last seen in 1992, reflecting the depth of the economic shock. Around 90 percent of manufacturing activity in key economic centers has been destroyed, eliminating thousands of jobs.
The informal economy—once a crucial survival mechanism—has also contracted due to displacement and resource shortages. With over 14 million people forced from their homes, both formal and informal employment opportunities have sharply declined.
Oil Industry Disruptions
Sudan’s oil sector has also been significantly affected. Production has fallen due to instability and infrastructure damage. The Khartoum (Al-Jaili) refinery, which once processed up to 100,000 barrels per day and supplied nearly half the country’s fuel, has been out of service since July 2023.
Officials report that large parts of the refinery have been destroyed, with other sections requiring complete replacement after repeated attacks in 2024 and 2025. Although the army regained control of the facility in 2025, it remains nonoperational.
Pipeline routes transporting crude oil to Port Sudan have been shut down due to war damage, while facilities in Heglig have also been disrupted by drone strikes.
Rising Cost of Living
The collapse of the Sudanese pound and disruptions in supply chains have driven living costs sharply higher. The currency has depreciated from around 570 per dollar before the war to between 3,500 and 3,600.
Food prices have surged as a result. In Khartoum, four pieces of bread now cost about 1,000 pounds, compared to six pieces previously. Prices of essentials such as sugar, cement, and cooking oil have also increased significantly across different regions.
Transport and fuel costs have risen steeply as well. Bus fares have increased by around 50 percent in some areas, while fuel prices have exceeded 7,000 pounds per liter in several regions.
Meanwhile, wages have not kept pace with inflation, leaving many households unable to meet basic needs. Nearly half the population is facing acute food insecurity, and close to 90 percent of displaced households report being unable to afford sufficient food.
Human Impact
The economic collapse cannot be measured in numbers alone. Renda told a news channel that a child born in Sudan after April 2023 is entering a world where hospitals are likely closed, schools are not functioning, and families have been displaced—resulting in “lost childhoods, lost education, and lost health.”
Approximately 34 million people now require humanitarian assistance, with 19 million experiencing severe food shortages. Since the war began, about 5.6 million children have been born, many into conditions where healthcare is unavailable.
Education has also been severely disrupted, affecting around 19 million children, with only about 20 percent of schools operational in some regions.
Future Outlook
The war has already inflicted immense loss and trauma, casting a long shadow over Sudan’s future. If the conflict continues until 2030, the economy could shrink by an additional $34.5 billion by 2043, with GDP per capita falling by about $1,700.
Extreme poverty could exceed 60 percent, pushing an additional 34 million people into deprivation.
Renda described the ongoing conflict as a “narrowing window for recovery,” warning that each passing month entrenches deeper and more irreversible damage. He told a news channel that “every additional month costs lives and intensifies structural destruction,” stressing that ending the conflict remains the most urgent priority.
He concluded that the decisions made today will determine whether Sudan can still reverse its trajectory.
